Stay In the Loop

If the United States is to hold a presidential summit with North Korea, there are several allies we need to consult in advance.  One of those allies is Japan. The purpose of consultation with allies ahead of a big diplomatic summit is to make sure those allies, Japan, South Korea, and others, understand the American position and goals.  Consultations remove ambiguity, and assure allies that whatever offers the US might make at the summit, the alliance will remain. It is true that the US does not always consult allies on these matters, and that may not be a bad thing depending on circumstances.  For South Korea and Japan, this is a critical matter of security. Lives are on the line. With good information, Tokyo could craft good policy for a world that is hopefully post-detente. Ideally, South Korea and Japan should be at the summit as stakeholders or at least observers.  China could get a seat for the same reason, but so far there is no talk about any parties beyond Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and possibility a host if the summit is held in a location other than Panmunjom, the Joint Security Area. North Korea might prefer to conduct the talks only with Kim and Trump in the hope to keep him isolated and blind.  In light of all this risks, Prime Minister of Japan Abe Shinzo may have to take some extraordinary steps of his own and seek a meeting with Kim Jong Un.

In the days following the announcement that Trump and Kim intended to meet, Japanese diplomats expressed surprise and concerns about the potential summit.  Remember, nothing is concrete yet. The summit is only a “potential” for now. From March 12-14, various newspapers from the New York Times to the Telegraph reported that Abe Shinzo is considering a summit of his own with Kim Jong-un.  For now, it is hard to divine what if anything Abe is planning and his goals for the not-even-hypothetical-yet summit.  This possibility is worth talking about because if the Kim-Trump summit goes ahead, other states in Asia will have no choice but to try and follow suit.  It is unlikely that Trump will be able to truly de-fang North Korea, and even if he claims to, Japan will still feel pressure from Pyongyang’s weapons and the abduction issue will remain unresolved.  The abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea remains a major concern for Japan, with the number of abductees unconfirmed speculation and their ultimate fates kept vague by Pyongyang. Japan wants answers, and an assurance that the abductions ended.  But whenever Japanese envoys had a chance to raise the issue at a meeting with North Korea, they found themselves alone. South Korea has never taken up Japan’s case, even though South Korea has an abduction issue with North Korea of its own. The United States focuses on denuclearization and utterly ignores the abduction issue if it has to, despite assurances to Japan.  With this history, Abe and his diplomats might already expect the US to leave them high and dry on the Korean peninsula again. The only solution then is for Japan to get ready to follow Washington’s lead. Abe would be able to avoid getting rolled by the Northerners, especially if he sticks to the abduction issue during talks. Japan was able to make some progress in the mid-aughts, when North Korea agreed to release some abductees and their North Korean families, and the remains of others who had passed away.  

While the abduction issue looms large over Japanese North Korea policy, they have so much more to do worry about now.  North Korea has been able to hit Japan with missiles for years now, and the threat of Kim’s nuclear arsenal will only grow.  Make no mistake, Trump has no chance of getting North Korea to denuclearize. Abe has no chance either. Not even China could.  A nuclear North Korea will persist until the regime collapses. If it does indeed collapse. A series of meetings between Kim Jong-un and leaders of great power states will change the balance.  All Kim really wants out of these is the meetings, because like magic he is no longer the unbalanced dictator of a rogue state, he’s become a statesman worthy of the attention of other Great Powers, as an equal.  From there, Kim Jong Un has more diplomatic opportunities unknown to his forebears that he would use to protect his own survival.

All of this is still speculation.  None of the proposed summits have happened, and Kim Jong Un only gets this opportunity if the summits involve talk, and everyone walks away without an escalation of tension.  That could always happen. Abe Shinzo will not start a war, but Donald Trump just might. He lives for praise, and so far whenever he proposed the use of force, the press praised him for it.