Sunday, April 22, 2018

Stay In the Loop

If the United States is to hold a presidential summit with North Korea, there are several allies we need to consult in advance.  One of those allies is Japan. The purpose of consultation with allies ahead of a big diplomatic summit is to make sure those allies, Japan, South Korea, and others, understand the American position and goals.  Consultations remove ambiguity, and assure allies that whatever offers the US might make at the summit, the alliance will remain. It is true that the US does not always consult allies on these matters, and that may not be a bad thing depending on circumstances.  For South Korea and Japan, this is a critical matter of security. Lives are on the line. With good information, Tokyo could craft good policy for a world that is hopefully post-detente. Ideally, South Korea and Japan should be at the summit as stakeholders or at least observers.  China could get a seat for the same reason, but so far there is no talk about any parties beyond Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, and possibility a host if the summit is held in a location other than Panmunjom, the Joint Security Area. North Korea might prefer to conduct the talks only with Kim and Trump in the hope to keep him isolated and blind.  In light of all this risks, Prime Minister of Japan Abe Shinzo may have to take some extraordinary steps of his own and seek a meeting with Kim Jong Un.

Not a Meeting of the Minds

On March 8, Kim Jong-un announced through South Korean diplomats that he wanted to talk to Donald Trump.  The offer passed through South Korea, and Trump accepted it immediately. He did not uphold any preconditions, or add new ones, or even take any steps to make sure the offer was genuine.  He just took it and ran with it. Then his staff had to spend the next two days hemming-and-hawing about whether or not an offer for a DPRK-US summit had even been made, or if Trump had actually accepted it.  From the looks of things, Trump certainly wants to do it and soon. To say this man’s “shoot from the mouth” style is serving him and us poorly again really does not illustrate anything. There is a reason the US has never held presidential summits with North Korea before.  It takes a long time to prepare a high level diplomatic meeting, and Trump no longer has the staff he needs for that. Hundreds of American diplomats and staff have quit since January 2017. The most experienced North Korea expert in the US State Department Joseph Yun retired right before the offer came in, and new people have not been applying to jobs in the State department.  Without the advice Department of States staff would give, the North Koreans will be able to manipulate Trump very easily, and so avoid giving anything up in exchange for a prestigious meeting.