On
February 20 2014, the Financial Times
reported that a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) officer, speaking to FT
anonymously, said that China is training for a “short, sharp war” with Japan
and its allies (which include Australia and India). On February
23, 2014, the New York Times
reported on the US-Japan Iron Fist exercise at Camp Pendleton, as if it was
something entirely new. Iron Fist occurs
every year, yet, this year, the Times ran
the headline “In Japan’s Drill with the U.S., a Message for Beijing.”
War games often are used to as a
message to potential rivals, although, in this case, the Times headline is a little hyperbolic. While it is true that war games are sometimes
conducted for the purpose of showing off to or intimidating a potential rival,
there is hardly anything remarkable about the facts reported in these two
newspapers, especially when the story--Chinese-Japanese tension--is
ongoing. This story has been an international issue
that has been making headlines for several years. There has been and continues to be a general
fear in the world that China will have a war with someone soon. Here we are, however, with news stories about
three big players in Asia training for war with each other, as if the
inevitability of that war has suddenly become more certain. Sort of.
Because Japan and the US conduct
Iron Fist every year, there is no doubt they would conduct the exercise, even
if China were not seen as a looming threat, and they would have to practice
defending and retaking islands because that is the geography with which Japan
has to contend. Of course, it is true
that China presents the principle threat to Japan, and has specifically
threatened to seize Japanese islands. Yet,
whenever the major newspapers run stories on China-Japanese tension, the notion
is that war is looming. However, I do
not think so, at least not in the short term.
The status quo between China and Japan will persist through the near
future. There is tension in the
relationship between the countries, but they will be able to avoid conflict
over the next few years years, if China and Japan will continue, and increase,
their bilateral communication.
There is less tension between China and Japan
in the economic arena. Beijing will want
Japan to continue its high level of engagement in the Chinese economy, and
reverse the divestments we saw in the last two years. Talks on the China-Japan-South Korea free
trade agreement are ongoing. It is hard
to tell how long these talks will last before they result in an agreement, but
the very fact of such talks is a good sign for the relationship between the
three countries concerned. They can
dispel their suspicion just enough for cordial economic relationships. Sometimes, talking is all you need, even when
the talks do not go anywhere. However,
Japan will need some assurance that rioters are unlikely to damage Japanese
property in the future. The summer of
2012 showed that while the Chinese Communist Party is willing to allow
widespread anti-Japan demonstrations, the Party has the capability to make
demonstrations stop when the national leadership decides enough has
happened. Beijing can give the Japanese
that necessary assurance. Even if a free
trade agreement does not materialize, further economic integration can reassure
the respective governments that they have some good intentions towards each
other and create more groups on both sides with a greater interest in peace
than conflict.
Even if
economic developments improve relations in Northeast Asia, military rivalry
will remain and the territorial disputes are likely to remain unresolved. Neither China nor Japan is willing to move on
the issue, but it is possible for that dispute to linger because no one’s
survival is linked to the fate of the disputed territories. The territorial dispute will help drive
military tensions, which are likely to continue. There are other causes of military
tension. China needs to continue
modernizing its military. This can
unnerve its neighbors, including Japan.
Japan, for its part, has modern military technology and doctrine, but
limited capability due to its constitution and lack of experience. Japan’s present administration (and possibly
many voters) wants to amend the constitution and remove the pacifist
clause. If this goes through, then Japan
will be able to rebuild its military capability and become a ‘normal’ state
again.
And of course,
we, the United States, have nothing to gain from a war with China and much to
lose. While China could garner prestige
from a military victory over the United States, it also risks losing too much; too
many difficult to replace young people, too many economic opportunities with
both the United States and China’s Asian
neighbors would be lost by war.
Asia’s middle and minor powers (South Korea, Vietnam, and Thailand to
name a few) have expressed anxiety over China’s ascent, arising from their
histories of living under Chinese hegemony that no one but China seems eager to
revive. A Chinese military victory over
Japan and the United States would frighten the rest of Asia, and force them to
change their foreign policies, but not necessarily to policies that would be
more China friendly.
China and the United States have
large, impressive militaries capable of inflicting severe damage on each
other. Yet, if China wants to harm the
American homeland, it would have to risk the consequences of using its nuclear arsenal. In contrast, the United States can use allies
and bases in the Pacific to threaten China with conventional weapons. Chinese military capability still lags behind
the US in terms of personnel experience, technology, and deployment of
forces.
China,
Japan and the United States do have mutual interests beyond their
economies. All three countries want
peace to reign on the Korean peninsula.
North Korean missiles can threaten Japan, while China wants to prevent
South Korea from pursuing nuclear arms in response to North Korea’s program and
the United States does not want to lose another 30,000 people fighting over
there.
War between
China and Japan or China and the U.S. is far from a sure thing, but continued
joint military exercises between the U.S. and Japan are.
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