There
is a noticeable tendency for tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul to flare up
in the spring. Last year North Korea
sealed the border, closed factories in the Kaesong Industrial Zone and
denounced US-ROKA exercises as a provocation.
Said military exercises occur every year. Two years ago, North Korea announced it would
resume nuclear tests, and the US Navy dispatched Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS
George Washington to South Korea in response. Well, last week, on Sunday March 30, North
Korea fired artillery into the ocean, over the armistice line, and the Southern
Navy responded in kind. Then on Monday
March 31 the South Korean Defense Ministry announced they had recovered a
crashed North Korean drone. These events
are nothing new, but later in the week Prime Minister of Japan Abe Shinzo
ordered the Marine Self-Defense Force to patrol the Sea of Japan with an
AEGIS-equipped destroyer and shoot down any North Korean missiles bringing a
new factor into the mix: the Japanese might actually do something. Previously, Japan was the least powerful
party interested in the tension on the Korean peninsula. However, if the Japanese were to actually
shoot down a North Korean device the rest of the region would have to take them
more seriously.
The story of the Korean artillery
exchange did not generate the same amount of excitement as previous flare-ups,
nor the recovery of a crashed drone. I
must admit, I was surprised the story about North Koreans flying drone aircraft
did not get more coverage in the United States, because it seems like that
story is tailor-made to get people excited. Of course, the on-going story of Russia and
Ukraine is a bigger deal. And perhaps journalists
and news consumers have learned that North Korean provocations are sound and
fury signifying not much.
So why does North Korea carry out these
‘provocations?’ The North Korean regime
does so hoping to bully South Korea and her allies into giving Pyongyang
something. The Kim regime has worked
hard over the last twenty years to create the appearance of madness, so that we
outsiders will convince ourselves “the North Koreans are capable of anything!” The North calculates that this fear will
deter the South and its allies from responding with force to North Korean
provocations. Political scientists call
this “calculated madness” or “rational madness.” It sort of works. No one with any real power wants to attack
North Korea, and it has been over a decade since North Korea actually gained
anything due to violent provocations.
True, China has invested in North Korea and provided aid, but that is a
matter of standing policy, and recently Chinese aid and investment has been
reduced.
The story of the recovered drone is
my favorite, because it actually teaches us something about North Korean military
capability that you would otherwise need to be a defense insider to learn. NBC News quoted an unnamed Department of Defense
official who reminded us that North Korea has UAV technology for ten years at
least. Actually, building drones is simple. The hard part is flying them and that fact
explains why the machine crashed where the South Koreans could retrieve it.
Japan has never been a silent
participant in the dilemmas radiating from the Korean peninsula because Japan
has a lot at risk. However its own
strict military policies Japan was unlikely to participate in military action
carried out by the United States or threaten any action of its own. Abe has intimated that he would change this
long standing military policy, and he has stated frequently that Japan would be
a ‘normal’ nation again. Abe means to
entertain the idea of military force once more, something Japan has steadfastly
refused to do since the 1950s. By
sending its ships to patrol the Sea of Japan in response to North Korean
behavior, Japan has stated that it will respond to North Korean threats. While the United States and South Korea play
it very cool with North Korea, Tokyo is beginning with a different
premise. The South Koreans approach
hostilities with the North from the point of view that they will get the worst
of whatever comes. The United States has
to worry about how much to put on the line for a far away ally and how ordinary
Americans will respond. Not only does
Japan have its own territory and population to protect, the region also needs
to see they cannot simply push the Japanese around.
There is one more consequence of
Japan’s renewed willingness to take military action: Abe’s new orders will
further convince Japan’s neighbors around Asia that Tokyo is
remilitarizing. China and South Korea
have been quite unhappy about the revival of conservatives in Tokyo because
they see it as a return to the bad old days of the Japanese Empire. For the last decade, Chinese and Korean fears
over Japanese militarization were generated by hypotheticals, but Japan taking
an acutal proactive defensive posture is not hypothetical. Here is something concrete to which Mainland
Asians may attach their fears.
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