I
want to say right off the bat, that seeing a freakin’ movie is not standing up
for your freedom. Sitting down for it,
maybe. I have been trying to write about
the Sony/North Korea/hack/panic fiasco since the story broke, but it evolves so
quickly I felt compelled to re-write everything. I think we’ve about reached the endgame. Sony staff may be scared out of their wits,
but now that The Interview has been
released, one would think Sony Pictures could not have asked for better
publicity. All of this panic was
unnecessary. North Korean violence tends
to come without prior warning, but vocal threats from Pyongyang are mere
bluster. I discussed this tendency last
Spring. We in the biz call it calculated
madness. North Korea effects the
appearance of irrationality in order to scare the rest of us. ‘They are unpredictable!’ we say, ‘who knows
what they can do!’ And then the rest of us give North Korea something they want out of fear. You see that in the
initial response to “the Guardians of Peace” threats.
The challenge for North Korea
though, is in the follow up. The whole
world is watching them, so everything North Korea does carries some risk with
it. A war against North Korea would be
costly because they have a lot of fighting men, and rugged terrain to challenge
any invasion. But suppose South Korea
and the United States finally ran out of patience with the DPRK and went to
war? North Korea does not have enough
food and fuel. The North Koreans could
inflict a lot of pain, but they could not sustain a prolonged conflict. Unless China or Russia intervened to protect
North Korean independence, which they would not do with their own armies, South
Korea and the United States can defeat the DPRK. I cannot imagine the period of time it would
take, but that is the only outcome I find plausible. China and Russia like having North Korea as a
buffer zone, so they might try to protect North Korea through diplomacy. We should keep in mind, neither China nor
Russia has actually done that since the Cold War.
Insisting that the threats of
violence over The Interview are
insubstantial is an easy argument to make.
It is more difficult to see things from the point of view of Sony and
the theater chains that refused to screen the film. They have a lot at stake. I know these threats from “the Guardians of
Peace” (is it too late to install a dynamo in Orwell’s grave?) are empty, but
what about everyone else? Movie theaters
need to be sure the patrons feel safe or they will stop coming. (I know movie theater attendance is down as
it is, but that’s beyond the scope of this post.) Sony has it even worse. The hackers can go beyond simple
blackmail. They can outright steal from
Sony, and impede their business less vocally.
More pain could be coming for Sony, that the rest of us will not
necessarily hear about.
The biggest irony though, is that
thanks to the publicity The Interview
has received for being the cause of so much grief, more people may see it than
would have if the North Koreans kept quiet.
Remember what I said about calculated madness? This was a carefully calculated move. But not by Sony. The message around The Interview now holds that this movie is dangerous to Kim Jong-un
because it makes him look like a buffoon.
Except, many of us outside North Korea already see him that way. This movie would never have been screened in
North Korea, so it can hardly cause North Koreans to think less of the Great
Successor. Just like the The Great Dictator unseated Hitler in
1940, right? “The Guardians of Peace” and
The Interview itself have the same
audience. You and me. And everyone else here in the West. And guess what? We bought it.
They got us. This movie had no
power against North Korea. From the
sound of things, it plays on existing stereotypes of that country. It had very little power over us. I think The
Interview would have come and gone with otherwise little controversy. It might still fall down the memory hole in a
few months. North Korea has very little
capacity to hurt Americans, but we acted like they did. In fact, we’ve given them just what they
want, by treating the very pedestrian act of watching a movie as if it would be
some act of defiance. For it to be a
brave act of defiance, the DPRK has to present a danger to us. But they don’t, so it’s not. Making this into such a big deal, turns North
Korea, a weak and vulnerable country, into a big deal and gives them the veneer
of power that it does not really have.
You want to show Kim Jong-un he can’t tell you what to do? Ignore him.
Completely. Take him out of the
decision making process when you decide whether or not to watch The Interview. Make that decision based on whether or not
you like the leads or whether it sounds like the type of comedy you enjoy. Or rent Die
Hard. I recommend Tokyo Godfathers.
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