A few weeks ago,
the Japanese Foreign Ministry announced that the JSDF would shoot down any
aircraft traveling within its airspace without permission. Last weekend, China published a new map of
its East China Sea Air-Defense Zone, which includes the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu
island chain. Every country has an
air-defense zone, that is the territory within which they begin tracking
aircraft, and often extends over the territory of other countries. It does not normally imply any territorial claims,
but in the case of the East China Sea the announcement aroused a passionate
response. Two days ago the USAF
conducted a fly-through of the Chinese defense zone with a pair of B-52
bombers. The B-52s refused to identify
themselves to China’s air traffic control who tracked the planes and apparently
identified them anyway. Then China
clarified its policy; the PLA would respond to incursion according to the
threat it presents. The PLA appears to
have accurately determined the B-52s were on a mission to see what
happens. It’s akin to a Soviet-NATO game
called “Bear Runs.”
During the Cold
War, the Soviet Union would occasionally send a Tupolev Tu-95 bomber, called
“Bear” by NATO, to test NATO air defenses.
Tu-95s would fly around Scandinavia, head south parallel to the Eastern
Seaboard and fly back. NATO fighters
would shadow the Tu-95 to and from Soviet airspace. No weapons were fired in anger. And that’s what happened over the East China
Sea this week. China said “How do you
like them apples?” and America responded “Oh
yeah?” Plenty to see here, but it
doesn’t amount to much. Why do it? What does a country like the United States or
the Soviet Union get out of a stunt like a Bear Run? Mostly, you see how a rival runs air defense. The lesson of the Bear Runs of the Cold War
and the B-52 excursion indicate that China and NATO would prefer not to start a
war when they don’t have to.
The geopolitical version of “I’m not touching you, I'm not touching you!” I suppose.
The geopolitical version of “I’m not touching you, I'm not touching you!” I suppose.
What do you all
think?
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