Two big stories
came out of Asia last week: the typhoon and China’s plans for reforms. I will write a post about the typhoon
soon. I want to wait and see what
information comes in from the Philippines as the country and the world has a
chance to take in what has happened. For
now, we’re going to start with China’s upcoming reforms. We can take this seriously. The People’s Republic of China has a history
of making policy changes.
First up, revisions of the
population control policies. Based on
the language in the Xinhua report, this is a revision of the law. There will still be laws restricting
population growth, and Xi’s government is not in a hurry. The Xinhua article “China to Ease one-child
policy” suggests incremental changes. It
sounds like the Politburo wants the population to stabilize, rather than shrink
or grow. Its no mystery why the
government would do this. They need to
offset China’s rapid aging. The only
question remains when the changes become law.
An article in the November 19 edition of Financial Times reports that reforms of the population control
policy will be tempered to prevent a baby-boom.
Something Financial Times reports
suspect is unlikely anyway.
Next item; revisions to China’s
criminal code. Xinhua titled the article
"China
to Abolish Reeducation through Labor," but from the article, its
sounds like party congress discussed a general reform of China’s criminal code
in order to protect citizens from abuse.
Another article, published the same day, describes
plans to reduce the number of capital crimes “step by step.” Ok, that’s actually a blurb. And contains about as much information as I’ve
written here. All we can do is wait and
see.
If you want to see for yourself,
here is a Xinhua article that lists every reform the Party Congress laid out: China Issues
Detailed Reform Roadmap. I’ll be
writing a post dedicated to China’s proposed economic reforms. I think they deserve their own post.
Keep in mind, there is no schedule
for when the reforms will happen, and according to Xinhua, the Communist Party
qualified every announcement with talk about doing everything step by
step. Like I said before, this is how
the Chinese Communist Party prefers to go about its reforms, since Deng
Xiaoping became Paramount leader. Henry
Kissinger argued in On China that
Deng chose careful, incremental reforms after the bad experience of Maoism, and
it became even more deeply entrenched as China watched Gorbachev’s reforms
become the very cause of the USSR’s dissolution. If Kissinger’s analysis is right, then Xi
Jinping and his fellow elites fear that every change they make carries with it
the risk of destroying them and everything the Communist Party has built. I think you can also see the influence of Sun
Yat-sen in these policies. Sun believed
that China would achieve republicanism incrementally, as the country modernized
and education improved. Keep watching
China.
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